Vietnam Macro Update – January 2026

Key Highlights:

• Vietnam’s economy recorded several positive developments, particularly in industrial production and tourism.
• However, certain risk factors remain, including signs of moderation in FDI inflows, rising inflationary pressures, and a shift in the composition of tourist arrivals, with a decline observed among key target markets.
• The equity market posted gains in January. Nevertheless, in the short term, multiple factors are constraining further upside momentum. The Vietnamese stock market is approaching a critical inflection point. At present, upward momentum is likely to remain capped by foreign investors taking profit, while domestic investors are constrained by the prevailing high interest rate environment.
• On the other hand, once the market reclassification process is completed and new investors finalize their assessment, allocation planning, and capital deployment strategies—alongside the State Bank of Vietnam’s completion of liquidity management measures—we expect renewed strong upward cycles in the Vietnamese stock market, positioning Vietnam as a newly recognized member of the FTSE-classified emerging markets universe.