(EN) GTJASVN Research _Steel Sector Updates_Dec 2025_ 24.12.2025

The steel industry continued to experience significant volatility in 2025, affected by reciprocal tariff measures, trade defense policies, and low steel prices in the first half of the year, which posed challenges for steel producers. In the second half of the year, however, the industry outlook has turned more positive, supported by a recovery in steel prices, the impact of trade defense duties on Chinese steel and coated steel products, a rebound in the real estate sector, and strong demand for raw materials driven by robust public investment. In addition, China has signaled tighter production controls and potential export restrictions from 2026, while a new economic stimulus package is expected to have a positive impact on steel price dynamics in late 2025–2026.

Domestically, HPG continues to act as the industry leader, holding the largest market share in the construction steel segment. The completion of the Dung Quat 2 complex strengthens HPG’s production capacity and marks the beginning of a new high-growth cycle for the company. Other steel producers remain in a relatively fragile position due to intense competition and the need to redirect export markets amid potential trade defense tariffs from the U.S. Overall, these companies are still undergoing restructuring. Meanwhile, the emergence of a new player, VinMetal, through Vingroup’s acquisition of Pomina, indicates that Vietnam’s steel industry is gradually attracting participation from financially strong shareholder groups.

Investment outlook and stock recommendation: Differentiation among companies is expected to become more pronounced, as scale advantages and an integrated value chain will be the key determining factors. Hoa Phat Group (HPG) remains a standout investment choice and a representative proxy for the steel industry’s growth prospects over the medium to long term.