(EN) GTJASVN Research_2H2025 Investment Strategy Report_Riding Growth Waves in a Stormy Cycle_27.6.2025

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

In the context of the global market, showing the polarisation from capital flows, policies, geopolitics, the trend of protecting the domestic market is becoming more and more clear. Vietnam has also experienced a dual impact in this period amid exchange rate and securities fluctuations, unpredictable foreign capital outflows in the international context – but Vietnam itself is still quite independent, supported by flexible regulatory policies. This can also be seen through the stock market trend in the first half of 2025.

MARKET SCENARIO FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE YEAR

In the second half of 2025, we forecast that VNINDEX will aim for 1,380 in the base scenario and 1,450 in the positive scenario.

• The uptrend will remain mixed with short-term swings stemming from profit-taking, tariff policy volatility, and geopolitical risks.
• Flexible monetary policy, corporate profit growth in the context of high GDP growth and synchronous policies from the Government will promote the development of the financial market in parallel with the goal of upgrading the rating as soon as possible, which will be the levers to help the stock market sublimate.
• The index has continuously set a 3-year high at the end of June. Based on the development of leading industry groups and stocks, it can be seen that there is not much room for the main index to rise (blue chips have risen beyond the peak and far exceeded the valuation as well as compared to the growth prospect). The catalyst for expectations at this time is probably upgrade information but it is uncertain.
• Similar to the previous recommendations, the right strategy is not to follow the movement of the index, but investors should have an independent analysis of each sector and stock to make an appropriate decision.

RECOMMENDED INDUSTRY GROUPS: Banking, construction, real estate, shipping.