APRIL INVESTMENT STRATEGY: RIDING WAVES WITHIN WAVES

• Vietnam’s equity market has officially been upgraded to FTSE Secondary Emerging Market status in the latest review. This marks a significant milestone after seven years on the upgrade watchlist. An estimated USD 5–6 billion of inflows is expected to be deployed into the Vietnamese stock market in the near term, supporting market expansion and unlocking growth opportunities across multiple sectors.
• In parallel with this positive momentum, Vietnam’s high-level political apparatus has recently been consolidated, accompanied by a strong commitment to achieving average economic growth of 10% per annum over the 2026–2031 period. This sets the stage for a new growth cycle for the economy.
• At the same time, in the early hours of April 8, 2026 (Vietnam time), global markets received news of a two-week ceasefire between the United States and Iran, alongside the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz during this period. This development raises optimism for the global economy following an extended period of uncertainty and the longest disruption to global oil supply on record. However, as highlighted in our previous assessments, this conflict is unlikely to be resolved in the short term, given its deep-rooted and longstanding nature. Therefore, a cautious investment stance remains warranted.

STOCK MARKET INVESTMENT STRATEGY

• During the trading session on April 8, 2026, the Vietnamese stock market reacted strongly to developments surrounding the upgrade news and geopolitical tensions. However, investors should remain mindful of heightened short-term volatility, which remains difficult to predict given ongoing geopolitical dynamics and global oil supply adjustments—particularly as Vietnam’s oil reserves are projected to cover only approximately one month of demand.
• While the upgrade announcement serves as a major catalyst for the market, it is important to note that September 21 marks the official inclusion date of Vietnamese equities into FTSE indices. Capital inflows are expected to be phased in over a one-year period, rather than occurring immediately.
• Following the April 8 session, the VN-Index has successfully broken through its short-term resistance level, providing a supportive psychological backdrop for the market. Nevertheless, we continue to highlight near-term volatility risks and recommend that investors maintain a defensive portfolio stance. Disbursement should be conducted gradually, with a focus on stocks offering sustainable earnings growth and reasonable valuations (please refer to GTJA’s watchlist on page 4 and the list of potential FTSE constituents on page 2).

(EN) GTJASVN RS_APRIL INVESTMENT STRATEGY_RIDING WAVES WITHIN WAVES_Apr 09, 2026