DIFINING KEY MACROECONOMIC THEMES IMPACTING INVESTMENT OUTLOOK FOR 2025

GLOBALLY,

In the U.S., economic data continues to show a healthy economy, but inflation is rising, threatening the Fed’s prospects of cutting interest rates. Indeed, in a recent meeting, the Fed Chairman emphasized that the pace of interest rate cuts would slow in 2025. The base case is a reduction of rates twice. Furthermore, the result of the 47th U.S. presidential election, with Donald Trump’s victory, raises concerns about the global trade outlook based on his policies in the new term.

In China, the economy has yet to show signs of strong recovery despite the new policy packages being discussed and implemented in recent months.

The EU region, as well as many other countries, is following the Fed’s lead in cutting interest rates to support their economies. However, the pace will likely have to align with the Fed’s actions while balancing the pressure from exchange rates as the USD strengthens.

Meanwhile, the persistent geopolitical risks in the Middle East, the Red Sea, Ukraine and Russia, and the Taiwan Strait (China) are also significant headwinds to be mindful of.

DOMESTICALLY,

Vietnam’s economy continues to maintain impressive growth, with an expected GDP growth of 7% in 2024 and 6.0%-6.5% in 2025, driven by key factors such as trade activities, FDI investment, production, and domestic consumption.

The recent efforts by the government in system reforms, strengthening public investment with historic projects such as the North-South High-Speed Railway Project, are expected to open a new era of Vietnam’s growth.

At the same time, some short-term headwinds exist, including liquidity shortages in the banking system and pressure on exchange rates and interest rates.

VIETNAM STOCK MARKET 2025 OUTLOOK

These challenges have somewhat affected the stock market performance in 2024 and are expected to continue into 2025. On the other hand, alongside the country’s growth era, the Vietnamese stock market is also on the brink of a breakthrough, driven by the prospects of a market upgrade. In a positive scenario, the VN-Index could reach 1,450 in 2025.

2025 INVESTMENT STRATEGY: SAFE INVESTMENT AMIDST VOLATILITY

With global uncertainties and potential impacts on Vietnam’s economy, we recommend a cautious investment strategy in 2025, combining a Defensive Portfolio and an Offensive Portfolio.

• For the offensive portfolio, we suggest focusing on sectors with clear trends, such as Technology & Infrastructure and Hydropower.
• For the defensive portfolio: focus on domestic consumption sectors that are less susceptible to macroeconomic fluctuations and global trade uncertainties. A high dividend stocks portfolio is also a suitable option.

We believe that 2025 is an opportune time to invest with a longer-term view. VNINDEX may be in a mid-term support zone, making it a good time to increase exposure for medium- and long-term holding.

Action – Cautious Approach: Investors should deploy capital when the index adjusts to support levels and avoid FOMO (Fear of Missing Out). We do not encourage active trading in the current uncertain investment environment.

(EN) GTJASVN Research_2025 Investment Strategy_Đầu tư an toàn giữa biến động_Dec 20.2024