2026 INVESTMENT STRATEGY

Entering 2026, the global and Vietnamese investment landscape continues to present a core paradox: “the most efficient is not the most safest, while the most robust form the foundation for sustainable growth”. In our view, Vietnam’s stock market is not operating in an extreme FOMO-driven euphoria, but rather in a “reflection bubble” — where asset prices reflect medium- to long-term economic growth expectations, rather than a bubble destined to reverse purely under “mean-reversion” dynamics.

Vietnam is no exception to the global wave of supply chain restructuring, infrastructure investment, and growth transformation. As one thought-provoking remark puts it, “None of us wants to miss out on a once-in-a-lifetime chance to build the future” — and in our view, that opportunity is unfolding in Vietnam. Flexible policy management across monetary, fiscal, and public investment fronts in recent years has acted as a “safety valve”, helping the economy avoid a Minsky moment — a scenario of financial collapse driven by excessive risk accumulation.

The year 2025 served as a pivotal phase in rebuilding growth momentum, while 2026 is expected to be a year of acceleration, as institutional reforms, infrastructure investment, and medium- to long-term capital flows begin to translate more visibly into corporate earnings and market confidence. However, a positive outlook does not imply a straight-line trajectory. As noted by JPMAM, “This year looks to be another version of 2025: a 10%-15% correction at some point due to profit-taking and a growth scare, but then equity markets end the year higher than where they began.” This underscores that short-term correction risks remain ever-present and must be managed proactively.

Accordingly, the appropriate strategy for 2026 is not to stay on the sidelines, but to “stay invested” with a selective approach, clearly defining investment style, risk appetite, and the role of each asset class within the portfolio. We believe that investment discipline, patience, and selecting the right inflection point of growth quality will be key to capturing opportunities while mitigating the inevitable market volatility along the journey ahead.

(EN) GTJASVN Research_Vietnam Stock Market Outlook 2026_CATCHING THE BIG CURRENT_Jan 2026