Key Highlight

Ÿ   The number of apartments launched and sold in Hanoi market decreased sharply compared to the the previous quarter. The segments were almost frozen with no transactions when credit were tightened, leading to exhausted liquidity.

Ÿ   In Ho Chi Minh City, the supply in Q4 was low with a total of 1,312 units, down -54% QoQ, just higher than Q1 2022 and the lowest in many recent years. The number of sold units also dropped sharply with 1,155 units, down -85% QoQ.

Ÿ   Credit growth of the real estate industry reached 24% Ytd, higher than the total credit of the country at 14.18% Ytd.

Ÿ   Credit to the real estate industry has been limited by the SBV to limit bubbles.

Comment

Ÿ   Per our view, the pessimism and risk off attitude will continue and be more serious in 2023 due to interest rate continue to hike; land price continue to collapse; developer who need cash will liquidate their asset and inventory; investor and home buyer will be reluctant to hold their asset due to higher interest expenses when interest grace period end; global economy come into recession, affect the income.

We remain Neutral for residential property sector.