05/01/2023
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PART I: THE BANKING SECTOR HIGHLIGHTS IN 2022
Tightened credit control
Policy highlights
Business performance of banks seemed good but there is a sign of weakening.
PART II: SECTOR OUTLOOK 2023
Bright spots: retail sector lights the income growth, stable & safe risk management
Headwind: asset quality risks put burden on both wholesale and retail segment, pressure of policy changes on liquidity and NIM, the gloomy economic outlook may damage credit expansion and profit.
Sector PBT is expected to grow by 15% in 2023 aligning with the credit growth’s assumption of 14%.
PART III: INVESTMENT OPPORTUNITIES AND STOCK PICK 2023
Investment strategy: focus on banks with 1/ conservative lending strategy, 2/ benefit from policy-participate in restructuring credit institutions under control, 3/ expected to witness impressive growth after restructuring (STB), 4/ private placement plan (VPB, BID).
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