The newly published macroeconomic data shows Vietnam’s strong economic recovery. GDP growth is recorded at 7.72% in Q2, the highest figure recorded in the 2011-2021 period. Cumulative 6 months, our economy reports GDP growth of 6.42%, surpassing the market’s forecast.
Inflation was under higher pressure in June with an increase of 0.69% compared to the previous month. The cumulative average CPI in the first 6 months increased by 2.44%yoy. Rising gasoline prices remain the main pressure on inflation.
Some of our comments in the Outlook 2022 report include: (1) economic growth will remain high at 6.8% to 7.2% (2) controlling inflation below 4% is a major challenge (3) Exports and FDI attraction will remain strong as drivers for growth (4) Stimulus measures such as economic recovery packages would be delayed and starting to make an impact in the last two quarters of the year.
Overall, with the data coming to June, we are still maintaining the main view mentioned above: (i) economic growth, in a positive scenario may inch up a little bit, however (ii) adjust the inflation forecast to a higher level for the whole year.
Summary of Key Information: Major global economies are entering Q4 with significant events ahead, including the U.S. presidential election, the Japanese...
