Investment thesis
• Vinhomes has largest land bank in Vietnam, which are in strategic locations. Vinhomes is the highest trusted housing brand and has widest profit margin among other developers. Strong financial condition with strong brand name allows VHM to raise capital in both Vietnam and overseas;
• In Q4 2021, VHM’s revenue was 23.6trillion VND (+6% y-o-y) while gross profit was 14 trillion VND (+89% y-o-y). NPAT was 11.9 trillion VND (+8% y-o-y).
• Vinhomes Co Loa, Dream city and Dan Phuong will be the next project to be launched this year.
Risk
• Cyclicity and credit tightening are burden on growth.
• Impact of Covid-19 may prolong and hit general demand
and income.
Recommendation:
Using the RNAV method, we value VHM at 81,800 VND/share and we recommend Neutral recommendation for VHM stock.