GTJASVN_Thematic Report_Update on Israel-Iran War and Impact_17.6.2025
Summary of key information:
- Thus, the Israeli-Iranian war has dragged into its fifth day. This is a continuation of tensions in the Middle East, a region that has almost never been quiet in decades, and a new chain of world instability. Despite some statements and efforts by countries to cool down, the course of the war is still very tense with many uncertainties as well as the potential to involve major powers.
- Iran’s nuclear program is a focal point of this Israeli-Iranian conflict. This program was launched in the 1950s under the leadership of the United States with the “Atom for Peace” initiative. Despite this, Iran’s nuclear development efforts are suspected of having military purposes.
- The Israel-Iran war may have been quite unexpected in timing, but considering the level of tension between the two countries as well as the progress of Iran’s nuclear program, it shows that this is a war that can be foreseen.
- Global market reaction: Oil prices rose shockingly, money flowed into safe haven assets such as gold and USD, risk-off sentiment soared
- For Vietnam, although not directly related to the war, the negative impact of the increase in oil prices, as well as the global risk of being caught up in a new spiral of military conflict (recently there have been tensions between Thailand and Cambodia and before that India – Pakistan) can adversely affect production chains. global trade as well as reducing the demand for investment in emerging markets by world investors. On the other hand, it is possible that the United States will consider more favorable tariffs for countries when inflationary pressures due to rising oil prices put pressure on the living standards of consumers in this country.
- Some of the sectors assessed to be affected include: fertilizers, transportation-logistics, energy, manufacturing.
