KEY TAKE AWAY

UNCERTAINTIES IN THE 47TH US PRESIDENTIAL TERM

Donald Trump became the 47th President of the United States according to the election results on November 6, 2024.

With the policies of the Trump regime, we believe that there will be mixed positive and negative impacts on the Vietnamese economy. To be detailed

Field	Impact
FDI	Positive
EXPORT	Combined
MONETARY POLICY	Negative

MAIN SECTORS EXPOSURE TO

Sector	Impact	Note
Industrial Real Estate	Positive	Benefit from supply chain shifts, but the impact is not as strong as in the previous period.
Export	Combined	The impact is expected to be negative but unclear until the new tax schedule is in place. + Policies to support home buyers can also stimulate demand for furniture and Vietnamese wood exporting enterprises can benefit. + In addition, export costs of enterprises will decrease in case of easing geopolitical tensions and transportation costs decrease.
Banking	Negative	Bank profits are negatively affected in case of difficult mobilization, banks must maintain high deposit interest rates.
Thermal electricity	Positive	Oil prices (petrochemical products including LNG) are expected to be low with Trump’s policies being positive news for thermal power plants (LNG as the production input).

SUMMARY:

• The impact of the new presidential term will not be clear until the second half of 2025 and 2026 when specific policies and measures are introduced by the Trump administration.
• In general, it is difficult to accurately assess the individual impacts of US policies on the macro and business operations of Vietnamese enterprises. The comprehensive impact will depend on the global economic cycle, the timing of the application of Trump’s new policies.
• With the above assessments, Vietnam will still maintain its position as one of the high-growth economies with an expected GDP growth of 6.5% in 2025 and is an attractive global investment destination.

We note the long-term risks to global trade flows in the context of more protectionist tariff policies and trade retaliation measures from US partners will push inflation back up and pose risks to global economic growth. In addition, the 2026 period is also a sensitive time when the Fed’s monetary easing cycle (interest rate reduction) will end.

More detail: GTJASVN Research_US New President and VN_Flash note_ Nov 2024 – eng v