GTJAVN Research_ Bản tin thị trường ngày 30-5-2025

2025 OUTLOOK: KEY DRIVERS FROM PUBLIC INVESTMENT AND RESIDENTIAL REAL ESTATE RECOVERY

In 2025, Vietnam’s construction sector is expected to rebound strongly, driven by accelerated public investment disbursement, projected to exceed 95% of the plan (approximately VND 876.5 trillion). This will serve as a key engine for economic growth, with a GDP target of 8%. Major projects such as the North–South Expressway, Long Thanh Airport, and stimulus packages will be the main drivers, boosting demand for construction materials (CMs), particularly steel, cement, and crushed stone. Meanwhile, the real estate market is set to recover in the second half of 2025, supported by low interest rates and government policies, further stimulating CM demand.

However, we assess that the building materials sector—especially steel—continues to face challenges from low steel prices driven by oversupply from China. Nevertheless, we expect domestic steel prices to improve from Q3 2025, supported by Vietnam’s anti-dumping duties on steel imports from China, South Korea, and others, creating opportunities for local steel producers such as Hoa Phat and Hoa Sen.These factors, along with rising public investment and the recovery of the real estate market, are positive signals for steel and construction stocks in 2025, with an estimated price upside potential of 15–20%.

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