In 2026, Vietnam’s consumer sector is expected to maintain its positive growth trajectory, supported by a stable macroeconomic foundation and key policy reforms implemented during 2024–2025. In 2025, domestic consumption showed a clear recovery as GDP was projected to grow above 8%, household disposable income improved, and consumer sentiment returned to pre-pandemic levels. Notably, policy drivers, such as Decree 70 on household taxation, initiatives to promote the private sector, and a more accommodative monetary – fiscal environment, have played a crucial role in strengthening purchasing power and reducing capital costs for businesses.

Entering 2026, we expect the consumer sector to sustain a favorable growth trajectory, led by the non-essential segment as cyclical demand strengthens and the middle class continues to expand (GDP per capita estimated at USD 5,400–5,500). In niche categories such as ICT, pharmaceuticals, and essential consumer goods, growth will be underpinned by: (1) the normalization of operating models across modern retail chains following the 2023–2025 restructuring phase; and (2) a continued shift in spending toward organized retail, where penetration remains relatively low at 30–35% compared with regional markets.

In parallel, e-commerce continues to be a major force reshaping industry structure. With GMV expanding at an average rate of approximately 15–20% per year, the online channel is becoming increasingly integral to the consumer journey, compelling traditional retailers to accelerate O2O strategies, optimize logistics, and digitalize operations to preserve market share.

From an investment perspective, we favor companies that demonstrate stable earnings growth, clear competitive advantages, and solid market-share expansion potential, including FRT, PNJ, and MWG. In addition, upcoming IPOs and listing transitions in the sector, such as MCH and HPG’s planned IPO of its agriculture division, are expected to meaningfully broaden the investment universe in 2026

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(EN) GTJASVN_Sector Report_Consumer Sector Investment Outlook 2026_Outperform_Dec 05 2025