The world faces many uncertainties emerging in 2025, due to the official shift from a unipolar to a
multipolar model. On the US side, President Trump takes office and promotes many solutions aimed at
addressing America’s intrinsic problems; however, these solutions have a profound and powerful
impact on all countries in the world, not just the United States. Meanwhile, China emerges as a pole
opposing the US, with high stability as well as a solid foundation in science, technology, and society.
Nevertheless, both the US, China, and many other countries in the world also have their own internal
issues and need more time to resolve them thoroughly.
Vietnam achieved positive economic growth results in 2025 with a milestone of 8.02%, creating
momentum for a more ambitious plan in 2026-2030. Specifically, in 2026 Vietnam sets a high GDP
growth target, above 10%. We assess that Vietnam has a high likelihood of achieving this growth
milestone if domestic policies as well as the international situation develop stably and favorably.
Nevertheless, due to changes in leadership terms, and at the beginning of this year the State Bank of
Vietnam exercising a certain degree of caution in monetary policy, coupled with the complex geopolitical
developments as analyzed, there is also a possibility that this year’s growth will reach a lower level.
Overall, we believe the probability is about 50% for growth in the range of 10-10.5%, 40% for 8-8.5%,
and 10% for only 6.5-7%.
Nevertheless, some growth drivers and stabilizers from the recent period are showing signs of slowing
down, requiring deep, fundamental reforms for the Vietnamese economy. Vietnam’s challenge will lie in
skillfully managing to maintain the speed while being able to steer the economy and finance toward a
more advanced model with higher added value, moving up to higher rungs in the international supply
chain.