{"id":27566,"date":"2024-11-07T15:05:12","date_gmt":"2024-11-07T08:05:12","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/gtjai.com.vn\/?post_type=research&p=27566"},"modified":"2024-11-07T15:08:40","modified_gmt":"2024-11-07T08:08:40","slug":"gtjasvn-research_us-new-president-and-vn_flash-note_-nov-2024","status":"publish","type":"research","link":"https:\/\/gtjai.com.vn\/en\/research\/gtjasvn-research_us-new-president-and-vn_flash-note_-nov-2024\/","title":{"rendered":"GTJASVN Research_US New President and VN_Flash note_ Nov 2024"},"content":{"rendered":"

KEY TAKE AWAY<\/strong><\/p>\n

UNCERTAINTIES<\/strong> IN THE 47TH US PRESIDENTIAL TERM<\/strong><\/p>\n

Donald Trump became the 47th President of the United States according to the election results on November 6, 2024.<\/p>\n

With the policies of the Trump regime, we believe that there will be mixed positive and negative impacts on the Vietnamese economy. To be detailed<\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n\n
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Field<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

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Impact<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n

\n

FDI<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

Positive<\/span><\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n

\n

EXPORT<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

Combined<\/span><\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n

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MONETARY POLICY<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

Negative<\/span><\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n

MAIN SECTORS EXPOSURE TO<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n
\n

Sector<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

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Impact<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

Note<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n

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Industrial Real Estate<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

Positive<\/span><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

Benefit from supply chain shifts, but the impact is not as strong as in the previous period.<\/span><\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n

\n

Export<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

Combined<\/span><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

The impact is expected to be negative but unclear until the new tax schedule is in place.<\/span><\/p>\n

+ Policies to support home buyers can also stimulate demand for furniture and Vietnamese wood exporting enterprises can benefit.<\/span><\/p>\n

+ In addition, export costs of enterprises will decrease in case of easing geopolitical tensions and transportation costs decrease.<\/span><\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n

\n

Banking<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

Negative<\/span><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

Bank profits are negatively affected in case of difficult mobilization, banks must maintain high deposit interest rates.<\/span><\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n

\n

Thermal electricity <\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

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Positive<\/span><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

Oil prices (petrochemical products including LNG) are expected to be low with Trump’s policies being positive news for thermal power plants (LNG as the production input).<\/span><\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n

SUMMARY:<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n